A.W.O.L.

It’s been nearly a month since I posted.  Apologies for my silence, I’ve been hiding.

Can't see me!

Since I was last among you all, things have changed.  I have been approached about a job, and whilst it’s by no means a cert that it’s going to happen, the very idea of it settled in my mind and has changed my view of where things are going, whatever the outcome.

I began trading back in August and was working at it almost full time, so there can be no suggestion that I didn’t give it enough time.  Time and money were certainly something I did invest, along with no small amount of emotion and effort.  As you’ll see from my posts and my results, I had many lows, several highs but the learning curve was a steep one, much steeper than I had anticipated.  I didn’t enter into it with any misconceptions.  I knew that the superstars like Peter Webb and Adam Heathcote are the exception rather than the rule.  I aimed to eventually be a tenth as good at trading as they are, and that would be very nice indeed.  Both of these chaps deserve respect and admiration, the former for his years of continued work in the markets, the latter for his obvious natural talent in the field.  Both of them are inspirational, but I never saw myself reaching their heights.  I didn’t rule it out of course, but aimed somewhat lower.  However, that said, I did expect to see more improvement in my own trading after 6 months.  The absolute key thing for me is that after all this time, trading did not feel any easier.  I had identified errors and reduced them, and I am sure my trading did improve, but it just didn’t feel like I had made much progress.

So, you’ve given up then?

Well, yes and no.  I have, it is true, stopped.  But I think it’s important to distinguish between stopping and giving it up.  Had this potential job offer not come, would I still be trading now?  Almost certainly yes.   Will I start trading again?  Probably not.  Before it came, I had not considered going back to work, but once the idea was on the table and I began to think about it, it seemed like the right thing to do.  I have eluded in past posts to the fact that my money was beginning to run out and I might need to get a part time job to keep the wolves from the door while I learned how to make consistent profits from trading.  So when this approach came along it made me think about the bigger picture and whether I should move back into the 9-5 life.  Surprisingly, the idea appealed.

In the weeks prior to the approach, when the racing was all but decimated, I’d been watching all sorts of other sports looking for trading opportunities.  I was looking to broaden my scope away from just pre-race trading as even when the racing was back to normal it would be good to diversify somewhat.  (This reminds me of when I missed out on a nice big win – I had noted Peter Webb’s post about laying at 1.01 when he saw the odds of defending BDO darts champion drop to rock bottom in one match, only for his opponent to come back and win.  I had been looking for opportunities to play with this low risk/high reward strategy and it appeared at the end of the snooker Masters final.  I’d actually stopped trading that day, having made a really nice profit on the over/under 2.5 goals markets earlier in the day.  When Ronnie went (I think) 3 frames up with 4 to play, I thought about having a look and laying him, but having made some reasonable money already I decided to get out while the going was good.  We all know what happened next:  He didn’t win another frame!  As he was losing I checked the historical odds, and sure enough he’d been trading at 1.01.  I could have got in and made a killing.  Hey ho!)  Anyway, after discussing this job opportunity and mulling it over, I settled down to watch some football.  What I felt when I watched that game under no pressure to seek out value was relief.  I could actually watch the game without constantly analysing it and questioning the odds.  It was an eye-opener.

As things stand, I’m in limbo.  I’ve stopped trading, and I am waiting for something to happen with this job approach.  If it does I’ll be happy.  If it doesn’t, I have decided to look for full time employment.  So right now it looks like my attempt at becoming a professional trader is over.  But, as the last few weeks have shown, I will never say never, and things may change.  Indeed, I’m rather bored now that I don’t have trading to occupy my mind, so I might actually do the odd hour here or there just for something to do.  I shall certainly continue to read the blogs of those who shared the struggle with me, and I hope you all have the success you deserve.

Rob.

Cold, and getting colder!

Like most of you, I’ve done no trading for what seems like ages thanks to the freezing weather.  Most days have had just one meeting, a scenario which makes for unusual and unpredictable trading, so I left well alone.  I also ignored those days with two meetings just to be on the safe side.  I can see lots of frustrated traders all clamouring for action which could lead to more weird happenings.  So Chicago Trading Central has been a quiet place of late.  I have considered looking at other markets, but I am reluctant to get involved with much in play trading.  Perhaps this is something I should look to change as I know that many successful traders do spread their talents widely, Peter Webb being a prominent member of this club, something he commented on today.

Something else I’ve been working on is spending time analysing the relationship between weight of money and price movements.  I have come to realise over the last couple of weeks that my trading is based far too much on hunches and reactionary moves, and not enough on considered reading of market data.  I know now that this has to change if I am to be successful.  Relationships between WoM and price can be seen, but I wonder how indicative they are in real time as opposed to after the event when the whole market can be seen.  What I mean by that is it’s easy to say “yes, that spike in WoM clearly contributes to the price drifting” when you can see the full extent of the WoM and the complete drift.  But what about all the smaller spikes and troughs that, in the bigger picture, are easy to ignore?  How does one filter these out in real time?  It all goes back to my previous post about finding a way to ascertain what is a genuine move and what is red herring.

The prospect of trading in the near future looks slim.  The weather looks set to continue to disrupt things at the courses, and now it’s also scuppered things for me.  My boiler packed up yesterday, so now I have no central heating or hot water.  This would be bad enough in such cold weather, but the fact that the damned things is less than 2 and a half years old makes it even worse.  And getting a plumber out seems to be more difficult than it should be.  I may end up retreating to my mum and step-dad’s house for a while until the temperature increases.  The problem with that is that their internet connection isn’t all that great so even if there is more action with the horses I’d probably not risk trading.

Hey ho!  Lets hope things improve soon.  Brrrr!

Frozen out

Happy New year everyone!  Shame there’s only one meeting today.  I think I’m going to take the day off as I would imagine having such little action the markets will be a bit weird.  So I’m going out to play.  If only there were some snow…

Thanks to those of you who commented on my previous post.  But the consensus view that I should be using small stakes only serves to highlight the utter frustration I sometimes feel.  I did exactly that not long ago, dropping back to £2 stakes, starting from scratch, going back to basics.  That went pretty well, I reeled things in nicely and, after a few weeks, began to up my stakes again.  I’ve been there and done that.  Do I really want to go back?  I’m not sure, but I guess if I have to then I have to.

The other point about finding an edge is very important.  I think this baffles me a bit, to be honest.  I know how certain races are likely to behave, but that’s about it, to be honest.  What I can’t seem to do is predict which way a swing is likely to go, or filter out the real swings from the red herrings.  I am sure the successful traders don’t hang around and wait to see if a move will develop into a full swing.  If they did, they’d miss most of the move.  So how do people know?  Maybe they don’t.  Maybe they jump on any move and get out immediately if it doesn’t instantly progress.  Again, this gets to the nub of one of my problems, in that I get hammered in volatile markets.  If it starts to move I’ll leap in.  I’ll maybe pick up a couple of ticks, and then they’re gone straight away and the market moves the other way.  So I get out and try again, time after time, with the same result.  This leads to several small losses which, of course, added together, make a bigger loss.  Not only do I not know how to profit in such an environment, I also don’t know how to identify this market until it’s too late.  I’ve seen, and been burned by, false swings by the time the volatility becomes apparent.

So, do you play the waiting game, watch the market and see what it’s doing before entering, but risk missing out on what maybe the only decent swing?  Or do you take any opportunity you see in order to maximise your chances of catching a move, but risk hitting a string of false swings?

This all needs some thought.  Any successful traders out there have space for a spectator?  I’d love to see how it should be done.

Crappy New Year

What a dreadful day.  Yet again I have taken two steps forward and five back.  I simply do not know how to convert these bad days into something less financially destructive and emotionally demoralising.  My good days are still too few, the bad days are very often massive and more than wipe out any progress I’ve made.  It’s so incredibly frustrating.  I wouldn’t mind if I could pinpoint where I went wrong, but days like today seem to have absolutely no logic to them, and I just don’t know how to trade in these conditions.  How the hell are you supposed to make money from markets when they’re completely random and seem intent on throwing up as many false signals and red herrings as possible?

I know there are many traders out there who can operate in these conditions.  I wish I could see what they see.  It’s also frustrating that after all this time I’m still no closer to cracking it.  I’m not stupid.  I’m a smart bloke who has overcome more difficult things than this before.  I can’t believe that this is beyond me, but days like this just baffle me.

So, that’s five months traded, and five losing months.  Things were so bad today I never looked like putting together the run I needed to make December profitable.  The progress made over the last couple of days has been blown away and my confidence is back to rock bottom.  Unless I can figure out how to avoid blowing great chunks of my bank every few days this whole thing is going to end in dismal failure.

So, good riddance December, good riddance 2009.  Another month begins tomorrow.  I wish I could go into it with even the merest hint of confidence in my ability to make 1p profit over the next 31 days.

I hope your day, month and year have been better than mine!  Have a good evening tonight – Happy New Year!

December on a knife-edge!

It’s been an up and down month, but, with an unexpected free day tomorrow, there’s a slim chance I might end the month in profit.  Today was a similar day to yesterday, mainly positive but this time with out a crippling loss to ruin everything, so I was able to register a nice £12.42 profit.  If I can extend the last couple of days into tomorrow and make £15.90 then I’ll be looking at my first ever profitable month. Since that cock up early yesterday when I lost £46 on one race I’ve put together an awesome run of 30 events which included 27 wins, 3 losses and a profit of £44.91!

A word of caution, though.  Some of my readers may remember me making similar comments with one day to go in October when I needed just £1.14 to make a positive month.  I bottled it in spectacular fashion, registering by far my worst ever day and embarking on the darkest days in my short trading life.  I guess things are different this time, as the odds are against me, so I’ll have to work my arse off for every pound and penny.  Last time I assumed I’d easily walk over the line.  This time there will be no complacency.  There will also be no pressure, at least not of the negative kind.  The target will be an inspiring one, and if I get near it I’m sure there will be plenty of adrenalin mixed in with all the tea in my bloodstream, but I’m not expecting to succeed, so hopefully I’ll just relax and do my best.

I’m not going out until about 6pm tomorrow, so I should have time to update you on my quest before I go out to welcome in a new decade.  I’m sure you can hardly wait.  Speaking of new years, thanks a lot to the cheeky bugger who selected “crash and burn” on my current poll.  Thanks for the support! 

Today’s gubbins:

Have a profitable end to 2009!

What a day!

First of all, hope you’ve all enjoyed a superb Christmas.  I spent a few days with various family members, and very pleasant it was too!  I didn’t trade at all after Monday 21st due to both my travels and my annoying cold, so while the break over a busy racing period was frustrating, it did at least allow me to recover both mentally and physically.  But I’m back home now, and so it’s business as usual… at least until the New Year festivities!

Today was my first day on the markets for a while, and boy, what a day it was!  Having had time to reflect on my trading, I decided that I need to look to quality rather than quantity.  I have a tendency to trade every race I come across, even if there’s not much happening, or if it’s scarily volatile, which is probably not wise.  The last couple of days of trading before Christmas were very poor for me with a nasty cold being annoyingly persistent.  I shouldn’t have traded, but there we go, lesson learned.  Prior to this I’d been there or thereabouts for a profitable December, but losses of £14 and £5 before I gave up left me with a deficit of nearly £24 to overcome in what was likely to be just two days.  Not looking good.  However, as I say, I was thinking of quality not quantity today, and things started extremely well.  In just the second race of the day I made a profit of over £8, my best since the end of October.  I was really pleased with how I went about making that profit, and it really buoyed me into thinking I could make serious inroads if I concentrated and focused on quality.  However, in the very next race things went extremely wrong.

I guess on reflection I was probably being greedy, but having been in a decent green position, things turned against me.  My reaction to this was bad and I added to the loss-making position and eventually found myself looking at a £12 loss for the race.  As you can imagine I was less than impressed with myself for wiping out the hard work of the previous race so quickly, but I swallowed it and carried on.  The next few races provided some nice little greens, and after a while I decided to check my progress on Betfair.  What I saw was not a £12 loss on the third race.  It was a £46 loss.  Yes, a £46 loss.  Cue much industrial language, gnashing of teeth, slamming of fist on desk and referring to all known gods in all known religions as utter wankers.  To be fair, none of the imaginary bearded chaps in the sky were at fault here, I was.  I’ve done it before.  I left an unmatched bet in the market when I left.  I could have brought me a fortune, but naturally it caused me pain.  Ouch.

So, I found myself deep in the brown stuff.  But other than some indiscipline in my trading, followed by dropping a clanger, I was really pleased with how my trading had been going.  So onwards I marched.  I responded really well to this considerable setback, and put together a winning run of 18 races including some nice big wins.  I then got a little out of shape in the penultimate race I traded, losing £2.78, but considering my huge strike rate this was more than acceptable.  I then lost it again in the last race of the day.  Making mistake after mistake I was looking at a loss of about £15.  So, like an arse, I let my position go in play.  The gods, having shat on me earlier, took pity on me and allowed the market to move sufficiently in my favour and I made a small profit.  Good news, I suppose, but not a pleasing end to the day.  I know some of you have repeated problems going in play when out of shape, but thankfully this has never been too much of an issue for me.  I think this is the third or fourth time I’ve deliberately done it and have yet to be burned, but I know it’s a stupid thing to do and I’ve got to cut it out.

Anyhoo, the upshot of all this is that I finished the day £7.82 down, which, when you consider my £46 loss early on, represents an awesome day’s trading.  If the loss had not been £46 but the expected £12 I’d have finished with a profit of something like £25.  It goes to show what I can do if I put my mind to it.  It also proves that I can trade effectively with larger stakes (today’s average stake was £28.50).  If only I could cut out the mistakes I might make some headway.

Below are today’s numbers:

Now, the horses may have been tucked up in their stables, but the day is not over.  I’ve decided to try to wipe out the day’s loss by scalping the football, a-la JS, so hopefully I’ll update you all later with some good news.  I’m already £3 up on Villa Liverpool, and expect that to increase.  I cannot believe that Liverpool are favourites to win at Villa Park, and I expect this to change nearer kick off.  We shall see…

[UPDATE:  Hmm.  Well, it wasn't as easy as I thought.  Villa drifted before KO so I ended up scratching for a loss.  With about 15 mins to go I laid Villa and ended up taking a £3-odd profit before escaping with my nerves just about intact!]

Christmas break

Snow has fallen across the country and as such things are in complete chaos.  We just don’t know how to cope with it, as a nation, do we!  The racing seems to have been hit hard, and I just can’t get into the flow of trading when there are 20, 30 even 40 minute breaks between races.  I’ve also got this lingering cold which is disrupting my sleep, so there seems to be no chance of me getting into the zone at the moment.  I’ve traded a bit since I last posted, but with no success whatsoever, so I am definitely going to forget about it for a while – there just seems no point in trying to squeeze out a few quid from this most unproductive of situations.

So, that might well be it for several days.  I would like to wish all of my readers a wonderful, peaceful Christmas and New Year.  I look forward to getting back into the swing of things in 2010.  Here’s to a happy, profitable time for us all!

Limping home despite stake raise

My first full day trading for a while – it was nice to be back.  I realise that the only way to become good at this game is to put in the hours, so I am keen to trade and trade and trade as much as I can.  I decided to up my stakes today.  I’ve been using £2 stakes for a while and am comfortable doing so, but that’s not going to pay the bills!  My average stake today was £22.20 as I experimented with many different staking plans and strategies.

It seems that 9 days out of 10 there’s some kind of flaw in my trading that either leads to a losing day or keeps the profits rather low.  Today my strike rate was a poor 53% which meant that I only notched up £2.08 on the 19 markets I traded.  Still, a profit’s a profit, and although I clearly didn’t take advantage of the larger stakes (my return on average stake was a measly 9.33%) I didn’t suffer any massive losses either, which is good.  Clearly tomorrow I’ll focus on my strike rate.

Speaking of impressive strike rates, has anyone else noticed just how awesomely good JS’s winning percentages are?  I can’t be the only one to notice how infrequently this basta.., I mean fine fellow posts any kind of negative figure.  Care to share your secret, JS?  Actually, this got me thinking.  As we’re all careering headlong towards Christmas, does anyone in the London area fancy meeting up for a few festive pints in the next few weeks?  Would be nice to meet up with people, especially those kind people who regularly post comments on these pages (you know who you are!).  Send me an email (robhollo ->- at ->- yahoo == d0t-co–d0t-uk) if you fancy it.  I’m sure there are enough people like me who need a beer after a day on the nags, and I have not really had the chance to chat to fellow traders since I began, so that would be good.  Be nice if Mr Heathcote could make it and share out some of his magic!

Anyhoo, here are todays facts and figures:

The mind says Go! The body says No!

I’ve had a cold for a couple of days.  Not a very pleasant experience, am I right men?  Anyhoo, I woke up at 5 this morning and lay in a bunged up funk for a couple of hours before finally nodding back off.  Then my alarm went off at 8 as usual.  I switched it off and promptly went back to sleep and didn’t wake until 11:30.  I think my body was telling me I needed some chillax time, so I have done a Folkestone and abandoned any horsey action for the day.

I’m not getting much trading done at the moment, so hopefully I’ll be fitter tomorrow and the rest of the week.  I had my new 50gb line installed yesterday.  It’s so quick it’s published this blog post before I’ve even written it.  The wonders of modern technology, eh.

Actually, speaking of yesterday’s cable installation, before the engineer came I was wondering what my chances were of opening the door to a beauty in the style of Charlize Theron in The Italian Job…

…but ended up spending a couple of hours with a bloke who looked remarkably like the scrawny one from that god-awful shower N-Dubz…

Oh well.

Quiet week ahead?

I notice that the meeting at Ayr has been canceled today.  Could this be the first of many in a week where very cold weather is expected.  I believe it’s going to be minus five in London tonight, which in my book is a wee bit chilly!

I managed to trade a few races on Saturday and managed to win on them all, but my profit was reduced by the 14:45 at Donny being voided.  I’m fairly sure this was one of the biggest wins I had amassed, so this was disappointing, but I was still pleased to add another few pence to the bank.  Not sure how much trading I’ll get done today.  I’m having a second broadband line installed today – stupidly quick fibre optic from Virgin – which will probably take up a portion of the afternoon, but once it’s done the coverage will be so fast It’ll be making trades before I’ve even got out of bed!

Saturday: