Cash or Crash?

The trading blog read only by very nice people!

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    RobbieChicago (from Swindon, not Chicago) is a man of many talents. Known for his excellent risottos and tasty Shepherd's Pies, he is also great with children and spectacular in bed (assuming he's being marked on his sleeping ability). Clearly unable to operate in his shadow, his employers of nine years made him redundant from his position in a large and respected company based in the City. Stung by this unexpected rejection, and vowing to "show those bastards", RobbieChicago has turned his attention to trading sports risk on the Betfair markets, and penning the most entertaining and informative blog within the field. At time of writing the blog is going considerably better than the trading, but an almost impossibly arrogant assumption of greatness means that our hero is certain he will succeed.

    RobbieChicago loves Frank Zappa, Columbo and throwing frisbees. He dislikes baked beans.

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Cold, and getting colder!

Posted by robbiechicago on January 9, 2010

Like most of you, I’ve done no trading for what seems like ages thanks to the freezing weather.  Most days have had just one meeting, a scenario which makes for unusual and unpredictable trading, so I left well alone.  I also ignored those days with two meetings just to be on the safe side.  I can see lots of frustrated traders all clamouring for action which could lead to more weird happenings.  So Chicago Trading Central has been a quiet place of late.  I have considered looking at other markets, but I am reluctant to get involved with much in play trading.  Perhaps this is something I should look to change as I know that many successful traders do spread their talents widely, Peter Webb being a prominent member of this club, something he commented on today.

Something else I’ve been working on is spending time analysing the relationship between weight of money and price movements.  I have come to realise over the last couple of weeks that my trading is based far too much on hunches and reactionary moves, and not enough on considered reading of market data.  I know now that this has to change if I am to be successful.  Relationships between WoM and price can be seen, but I wonder how indicative they are in real time as opposed to after the event when the whole market can be seen.  What I mean by that is it’s easy to say “yes, that spike in WoM clearly contributes to the price drifting” when you can see the full extent of the WoM and the complete drift.  But what about all the smaller spikes and troughs that, in the bigger picture, are easy to ignore?  How does one filter these out in real time?  It all goes back to my previous post about finding a way to ascertain what is a genuine move and what is red herring.

The prospect of trading in the near future looks slim.  The weather looks set to continue to disrupt things at the courses, and now it’s also scuppered things for me.  My boiler packed up yesterday, so now I have no central heating or hot water.  This would be bad enough in such cold weather, but the fact that the damned things is less than 2 and a half years old makes it even worse.  And getting a plumber out seems to be more difficult than it should be.  I may end up retreating to my mum and step-dad’s house for a while until the temperature increases.  The problem with that is that their internet connection isn’t all that great so even if there is more action with the horses I’d probably not risk trading.

Hey ho!  Lets hope things improve soon.  Brrrr!


3 Responses to “Cold, and getting colder!”

  1. Chin up Robbie!

    Take the positive in that you are remaining disciplined and not being tempted to trade when there is little action. This can only stand you in good steed for when the action finally kicks back in.

    In the meantime go throw a frisbee or something!

    Great blog by the way,keep it up.

  2. robbiechicago said

    Cheers Ben! I tried to persuade my brother that we should get our shorts on and go for a ping in the park. He wasn’t interested. Slacker!

  3. Alex said

    Hi Robbie,

    The weather has been a bummer hasn’t it, however luckily for me as a follower of the US Horse Racing I have had plenty to follow and bet on and it has been quite an eventful week !

    Good luck for 2010.



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